SUPERCELLS - Severe weather potential

Click here for supercells severe weather
With supercells highest potential is for:

How will supercells move and organize?

Item Parameter < 100 J/Kg: Moderate & Unidirectional Shear >> 100 J/kg: Strong & Cyclonic Shear >> 100 J/kg: Strong & Anticyclonic Shear
1 SRH and Directional Shear

Tornadoes

Click here for more info about mesocyclonic tornadoes
Mesocyclonic tornadoes can be detected by the presence of a hook echo in the lower inflow region (as displayed in figure)
Item Parameter Yes No
1 LCLs < 1000 m and low LFCs
2 BSRH 0-1 km > 8-10 m/s
3 SRH 0-1km > 100-150 m2/s2
4 SBCAPE << MUCAPE and/or |SBCIN|>>|MUCIN|

Large hail

Item Parameter Yes No
1 MUCAPE>800 J/kg
2 MUCAPE>1200 J/kg
3 Low freezing level respectively to surface
4 High moisture contents in the lower levels
5 BSRH 0-6 km < 10 m/s
6 BSRH 0-6 km: 10-15 m/s
7 BSRH 0-6 km >> 15 m/s

Severe convective wind gusts

Item Parameter Yes No
1 Inverted V Skew-T profile
2 SurfThetaE-MinimunThetaE>13 K
3 SurfThetaE-MinimunThetaE>20 K
Large scale wind storms
1 High PW > 35mm
2 Wind at 700 hPa > 20 m/s and perpendicular to the convective system
3 CAPE >> 1000 J/kg

Excessive precipitations & Flash floods

Item Parameter Yes No
1 Deep trough from the NW and Omega blocking anticyclone over the E
2 Low level Jet advecting large moisture contents
3 Probability of convective precipitations >10% (TP poor-man ensenble)?
Skew-T features
1 Quasi Moist adiabatic profile
2 Skinny CAPE profile
3 High PW >30-35 mm
4 Low LCLs
5 Warm mid level temperatures (high 0 isotherm)
6 Weak mid-level flow or // to the boundary
Persistence
1 Upscale growth suggested by HR models?
2 Backbuilding (low level stream crosses the boundary within a weak DLS environment)
3 Low level Jet crossing the boundary
4 The trigger line is stationary (stationary convergence or orography)