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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC MD 85

MD 0085 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
MD 0085 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma to central/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 220102Z - 220500Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of freezing rain, mixing with sleet, will continue
to develop across the region this evening. Freezing rain rates up to
a few hundredths of an inch per hour will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Within the entrance region of a powerful upper-level
jet, showery activity has developed from the Texas Panhandle
northeastward to the Wichita, KS metro. 00Z soundings from AMA, OUN,
DDC, and TOP all depict a 700-500mb thermal structure potentially
supportive of weak mid-level buoyancy, such that very shallow
convection is expected to persist this evening. Additionally, weak
warm advection and related isentropic ascent near 850-700mb will
further support the development of precipitation.

Related to this elevated warm advection, model guidance and
mesoanalysis data depict a slow north/northwestward progression of
the 850mb 0C line over the next several hours, and this is confirmed
by a northward advance of a melting layer signature noted in KICT
data. Along the northern fringe of the discussion area, sleet may be
more common. Farther south, freezing rain potential will be higher,
although some mixing with sleet may still occur, especially in
heavier showers that favor re-freezing in the boundary layer.
Regardless, freezing rain rates up to a few hundredths of an inch
per hour will be possible into the early overnight, with freezing
drizzle possible outside of heavier precipitation.

..Picca.. 02/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38359828 38819739 39029546 38939516 38609511 38259555
            37399681 36729748 36479796 36289874 36589898 36969903
            38359828 

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SPC MD 84

MD 0084 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK...EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST AR
MD 0084 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Areas affected...portions of northeast OK...extreme southeast
KS...southwest and central MO and extreme northwest AR

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 212301Z - 220400Z

SUMMARY...Light freezing rain, mixing with sleet and snow at times,
will expand northeast from northeastern OK into southwestern and
central MO this evening. Freezing rain rates are expected to remain
light.

DISCUSSION...Light precipitation is expanding northeast, roughly
along the I-44 corridor from northeast OK into southwest MO early
the evening. Weak forcing for ascent and warm advection will be
sufficient for continued light precipitation expanding northeast
with time through the evening. Surface temperatures across the MCD
area ranged from around 27 to 30 degrees F as of 23z. The surface
cold front may slosh westward a bit this evening, but temperatures
are expected to remain below freezing. Forecast thermodynamic
profiles will mainly favor light freezing rain, though some sleet
and/or snow could mix in at times. The lack of stronger forcing for
ascent should limit precipitation rates, and freezing rain rates at
or below 0.05 inches per 3 hours are expected.

..Leitman.. 02/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36719569 36519604 36299624 36079632 35839624 35579584
            35549556 35659515 36059431 36829257 37409129 37679114
            37919118 38079133 38189153 38249180 38259204 38199233
            37539409 37209480 36719569 

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